Operario-PR vs Avai
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 16:00 CET
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LLDLLThe score model made an Operario-PR win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Operario-PR 1.34 – 0.98 Avai.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR win | 45.3% | 50.9% | -5.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 27.9% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Avai win | 27.7% | 21.2% | +6.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.0% | 43.3% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.5% | 23.5% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.8% | 47.6% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 30.0% | +2.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Operario-PR 46.9 / Avai 50.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.