CRB vs Novorizontino
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 23:30 CET
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WWDLDThe score model made a Novorizontino win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 42%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CRB 1.19 – 1.19 Novorizontino.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRB win | 36.3% | 39.7% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.2% | 29.4% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Novorizontino win | 36.5% | 30.9% | +5.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 46.2% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.6% | 26.3% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.0% | 52.3% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.0% | 31.8% | +0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CRB 51.6 / Novorizontino 51.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.