CRB vs Novorizontino
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 23:30 CET
DWWWW
LLLWLThe score model makes a CRB win the most likely outcome at 37%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 42%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Novorizontino win — 36.2% vs 31.7% implied (+4.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CRB 1.19 – 1.18 Novorizontino.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRB win | 36.5% | 38.4% | -1.9% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 29.8% | -2.5% |
| Novorizontino win | 36.2% | 31.7% | +4.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.2% | 45.4% | -3.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.4% | 25.6% | -4.1% |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | 51.9% | -4.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.2% | 31.7% | +0.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CRB 51.8 / Novorizontino 51.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.