America MG vs Athletic Club
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 23:30 CET
DDLWL
DDWDWThe score model makes a America MG win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Athletic Club win — 31.6% vs 27.3% implied (+4.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: America MG 1.16 – 1.00 Athletic Club.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| America MG win | 39.7% | 41.3% | -1.6% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 31.4% | -2.7% |
| Athletic Club win | 31.6% | 27.3% | +4.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.7% | 36.9% | -0.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.3% | 19.1% | -1.8% |
| Both teams to score | 43.2% | 45.0% | -1.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.4% | 26.4% | -2.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: America MG 46.4 / Athletic Club 36.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.