Sport Recife vs Londrina
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 01:30 CET
DDDDW
DDLLLThe score model makes a Sport Recife win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Sport Recife win — 62.9% vs 56.9% implied (+6.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sport Recife 1.97 – 0.89 Londrina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife win | 62.9% | 56.9% | +6.0% |
| Draw | 20.7% | 24.8% | -4.1% |
| Londrina win | 16.4% | 18.3% | -1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 50.7% | +3.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.0% | 29.7% | +2.4% |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 50.8% | -0.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 34.6% | -0.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sport Recife 33.5 / Londrina 23.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.