Sport Recife vs Londrina
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 01:30 CET
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LWWLLThe score model made a Sport Recife win the most likely outcome at 63%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sport Recife 1.97 – 0.89 Londrina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife win | 62.9% | 56.5% | +6.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 20.7% | 25.8% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Londrina win | 16.4% | 17.7% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 48.3% | +6.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.0% | 27.5% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 49.5% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 32.9% | +1.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sport Recife 33.3 / Londrina 23.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.