Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 00:30 CET
WLWWD
LLLLDThe score model made a Sao Bernardo win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sao Bernardo 1.80 – 0.88 Botafogo SP.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Bernardo win | 59.3% | 38.1% | +21.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 31.9% | -9.5% | ✗ |
| Botafogo SP win | 18.3% | 30.0% | -11.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 38.4% | +11.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.2% | 19.8% | +8.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 46.0% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.8% | 27.0% | -0.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sao Bernardo 18.2 / Botafogo SP 50.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.