Sao Bernardo vs Botafogo SP
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-16 · 00:30 CET
DDLLW
DDWLWThe score model makes a Sao Bernardo win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Sao Bernardo win — 59.3% vs 41.0% implied (+18.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sao Bernardo 1.80 – 0.88 Botafogo SP.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Bernardo win | 59.3% | 41.0% | +18.3% |
| Draw | 22.4% | 31.0% | -8.6% |
| Botafogo SP win | 18.3% | 28.0% | -9.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 38.7% | +11.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.2% | 20.2% | +8.0% |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 45.7% | +3.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.8% | 27.0% | -0.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sao Bernardo 18.3 / Botafogo SP 50.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.