Criciuma vs Goias
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-15 · 21:00 CET
WWWDL
DWDLWThe score model makes a Criciuma win the most likely outcome at 50%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 31%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 64.7% vs 57.3% implied (+7.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Criciuma 1.25 – 0.69 Goias.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma win | 50.2% | 49.9% | +0.3% |
| Draw | 29.1% | 29.3% | -0.2% |
| Goias win | 20.7% | 20.8% | -0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.7% | 37.9% | -7.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.2% | 19.2% | -6.0% |
| Both teams to score | 35.3% | 42.7% | -7.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.5% | 26.6% | -2.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Criciuma 42.6 / Goias 46.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.