Criciuma vs Goias
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-15 · 21:00 CET
LWLLL
LLWWLThe score model made a Criciuma win the most likely outcome at 50%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 31%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Criciuma 1.25 – 0.69 Goias.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma win | 50.2% | 50.6% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 29.4% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| Goias win | 20.6% | 20.0% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.7% | 37.8% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.2% | 19.2% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 35.2% | 42.7% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.5% | 26.5% | -2.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Criciuma 42.4 / Goias 46.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.