Ceara vs Cuiaba
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-15 · 21:00 CET
WLDWD
WLWDWThe score model made a Ceara win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ceara 1.17 – 0.84 Cuiaba.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara win | 43.6% | 40.8% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.8% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Cuiaba win | 26.7% | 26.4% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.6% | 32.5% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.4% | 15.5% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 38.9% | 40.7% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.6% | 23.5% | +1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ceara 32 / Cuiaba 36.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.