Ceara vs Cuiaba
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-15 · 21:00 CET
DDLWW
DLLDDThe score model makes a Ceara win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 33%). No market here diverges from the data by more than 2 points. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ceara 1.17 – 0.84 Cuiaba.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara win | 43.6% | 43.2% | +0.5% |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.3% | -1.7% |
| Cuiaba win | 26.7% | 25.5% | +1.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 32.6% | 33.6% | -1.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.4% | 16.1% | -1.6% |
| Both teams to score | 38.9% | 40.8% | -2.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.6% | 24.2% | +0.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ceara 32.2 / Cuiaba 37 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.