Atletico GO vs Vila Nova FC
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-15 · 21:00 CET
WDWWD
LLWLLThe score model makes a Atletico GO win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 80.6% vs 77.6% implied (+3.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atletico GO 1.38 – 0.89 Vila Nova FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico GO win | 48.5% | 47.8% | +0.8% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 29.1% | -2.2% |
| Vila Nova FC win | 24.5% | 23.1% | +1.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 41.5% | -2.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 22.4% | -3.0% |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 46.8% | -3.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 29.1% | -0.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atletico GO 41.6 / Vila Nova FC 51.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.