Atletico GO vs Vila Nova FC
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-15 · 21:00 CET
DWWLW
LWDWWThe score model made an Atletico GO win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atletico GO 1.38 – 0.89 Vila Nova FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico GO win | 48.5% | 47.7% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 29.2% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Vila Nova FC win | 24.5% | 23.1% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 41.3% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 22.0% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.8% | 46.8% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.4% | 28.4% | -0.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atletico GO 41.5 / Vila Nova FC 51.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.