Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-SC
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-09-19 · 21:00 CET
WDWDW
LWLDLThe score model made an Atletico-MG win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Atletico-MG 2.18 – 0.86 Chapecoense-SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico-MG win | 67.3% | 69.5% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.5% | 19.6% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Chapecoense-SC win | 13.2% | 11.0% | +2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | 55.5% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.1% | 34.5% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.3% | 47.3% | +4.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | 38.5% | +0.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Atletico-MG 52.8 / Chapecoense-SC 20.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-SC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.