Waregem W vs Gent W
Super League Women, Belgium · 2026-11-14 · 13:30 CET
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LLLLLThe score model makes a Waregem W win the most likely outcome at 56%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 64.1% vs 58.5% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Waregem W 1.94 – 1.08 Gent W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Waregem W win | 56.1% | 58.3% | -2.2% |
| Draw | 24.4% | 22.4% | +2.0% |
| Gent W win | 19.5% | 19.3% | +0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 59.7% | -1.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 39.3% | -3.5% |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 57.3% | +0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 41.5% | -5.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Waregem W 31.4 / Gent W 31.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Waregem W vs Gent W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.