St. Truiden vs Waregem
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-11-08 · 19:15 CET
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LLLLLThe score model makes a St. Truiden win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 64.1% vs 61.2% implied (+2.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Truiden 1.88 – 1.14 Waregem.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden win | 54.1% | 53.4% | +0.6% |
| Draw | 23.5% | 23.7% | -0.2% |
| Waregem win | 22.4% | 22.9% | -0.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 60.0% | -1.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 38.8% | -2.9% |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | 59.7% | -1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.1% | 41.2% | -0.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: St. Truiden 45.2 / Waregem 30.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open St. Truiden vs Waregem in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.