Royale Union SG vs Genk
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-11-08 · 18:30 CET
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DLWWLThe score model makes a Royale Union SG win the most likely outcome at 68%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Royale Union SG win — 68.1% vs 58.3% implied (+9.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Royale Union SG 2.29 – 0.90 Genk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royale Union SG win | 68.1% | 58.3% | +9.8% |
| Draw | 19.0% | 22.7% | -3.7% |
| Genk win | 12.9% | 18.9% | -6.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 59.1% | +2.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.5% | 38.4% | +1.1% |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 57.1% | -3.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 40.7% | +0.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Royale Union SG 45.2 / Genk 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Royale Union SG vs Genk in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.