Gent vs Kortrijk
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-11-08 · 16:00 CET
DWWWL
LLWLDThe score model makes a Gent win the most likely outcome at 70%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Gent win — 69.7% vs 67.6% implied (+2.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gent 2.14 – 0.72 Kortrijk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 69.7% | 67.6% | +2.1% |
| Draw | 19.5% | 19.9% | -0.4% |
| Kortrijk win | 10.8% | 12.5% | -1.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.2% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 45.9% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Gent 45.3 / Kortrijk 21.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Gent vs Kortrijk in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.