Westerlo vs Charleroi
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
WWWDL
WWWLWThe score model makes a Charleroi win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 61.8% vs 59.7% implied (+2.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Westerlo 1.51 – 1.67 Charleroi.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Westerlo win | 34.4% | 32.6% | +1.8% |
| Draw | 24.5% | 25.9% | -1.4% |
| Charleroi win | 41.1% | 41.5% | -0.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.8% | 59.7% | +2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.5% | 39.3% | +0.2% |
| Both teams to score | 63.9% | 62.9% | +1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.2% | 41.4% | -0.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Westerlo 45.2 / Charleroi 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Westerlo vs Charleroi in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.