Leuven vs KV Mechelen
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-11-07 · 18:15 CET
DWDDW
LLDWWThe score model makes a Leuven win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 75.6% vs 67.7% implied (+8.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leuven 1.44 – 1.07 KV Mechelen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leuven win | 44.9% | 40.2% | +4.7% |
| Draw | 27.7% | 27.1% | +0.6% |
| KV Mechelen win | 27.4% | 32.7% | -5.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | 53.4% | -7.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 32.3% | -8.0% |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 57.8% | -7.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.4% | 36.5% | -7.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Leuven 45.1 / KV Mechelen 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Leuven vs KV Mechelen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.