Sporting Lokeren vs Dender
Challenger Pro League, Belgium · 2026-11-08 · 19:15 CET
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WWWWDThe score model makes a Dender win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Dender win — 43.8% vs 40.4% implied (+3.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sporting Lokeren 1.24 – 1.49 Dender.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Lokeren win | 32.2% | 33.2% | -1.0% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 26.4% | -2.4% |
| Dender win | 43.8% | 40.4% | +3.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.1% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Sporting Lokeren 32.9 / Dender 13 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sporting Lokeren vs Dender in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.