K. Lierse S.K. vs Eupen
Challenger Pro League, Belgium · 2026-11-08 · 16:00 CET
DDLWL
WWWLLThe score model makes a Eupen win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 71.3% vs 62.5% implied (+8.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: K. Lierse S.K. 1.15 – 1.55 Eupen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lierse S.K. win | 28.9% | 25.1% | +3.9% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 24.7% | -0.9% |
| Eupen win | 47.3% | 50.2% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 58.3% | -7.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 37.5% | -8.8% |
| Both teams to score | 53.2% | 59.6% | -6.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 38.8% | -6.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: K. Lierse S.K. 37.5 / Eupen 32.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open K. Lierse S.K. vs Eupen in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.