Francs Borains vs Seraing
Challenger Pro League, Belgium · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
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LDLWWThe score model makes a Francs Borains win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Seraing win — 31.4% vs 23.3% implied (+8.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Francs Borains 1.40 – 1.14 Seraing.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Francs Borains win | 43.7% | 51.6% | -7.9% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.1% | -0.1% |
| Seraing win | 31.4% | 23.3% | +8.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.2% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 50.6% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.7% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Francs Borains 36.1 / Seraing 38 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Francs Borains vs Seraing in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.