Anderlecht U23 vs Club Brugge KV U23
Challenger Pro League, Belgium · 2026-11-07 · 16:00 CET
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DDLDLThe score model makes an Anderlecht U23 win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 65.4% vs 55.3% implied (+10.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Anderlecht U23 1.57 – 1.40 Club Brugge KV U23.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht U23 win | 42.1% | 34.8% | +7.4% |
| Draw | 23.0% | 25.0% | -2.0% |
| Club Brugge KV U23 win | 34.8% | 40.3% | -5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | 64.9% | -8.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.6% | 44.7% | -10.2% |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | 66.6% | -7.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 44.7% | -6.7% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Anderlecht U23 37.5 / Club Brugge KV U23 38.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.