Genk U23 vs Gent U23
Challenger Pro League, Belgium · 2026-11-06 · 20:00 CET
LDLDD
LDWLWThe score model makes a Genk U23 win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 65.8% vs 57.5% implied (+8.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Genk U23 1.50 – 1.45 Gent U23.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk U23 win | 39.4% | 43.2% | -3.7% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 25.3% | -2.2% |
| Gent U23 win | 37.4% | 31.5% | +5.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | 62.7% | -6.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.2% | 42.5% | -8.3% |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 64.9% | -6.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.8% | 43.8% | -6.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Genk U23 39.7 / Gent U23 25 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Genk U23 vs Gent U23 in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.