Qarabag vs Turan Tovuz
Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-11-06 · 15:00 CET
WWDDD
WWLDWThe score model makes a Qarabag win the most likely outcome at 59%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Turan Tovuz win — 18.3% vs 16.3% implied (+2.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Qarabag 1.82 – 0.91 Turan Tovuz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qarabag win | 58.7% | 59.7% | -1.0% |
| Draw | 23.0% | 24.0% | -1.0% |
| Turan Tovuz win | 18.3% | 16.3% | +2.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 50.9% | +0.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.1% | 30.4% | -1.3% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 49.5% | +0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.0% | 35.5% | -1.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Qarabag 44.7 / Turan Tovuz 45.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Qarabag vs Turan Tovuz in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.