Neftci Baku vs Kapaz
Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-11-06 · 17:00 CET
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DWDWWThe score model makes a Neftci Baku win the most likely outcome at 67%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 67.3% vs 64.4% implied (+2.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Neftci Baku 2.09 – 0.80 Kapaz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neftci Baku win | 67.0% | 66.1% | +1.0% |
| Draw | 19.8% | 20.9% | -1.1% |
| Kapaz win | 13.2% | 13.0% | +0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | 56.0% | -0.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.7% | 35.6% | -2.8% |
| Both teams to score | 48.4% | 48.9% | -0.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.9% | 38.3% | +0.6% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Neftci Baku 46.2 / Kapaz 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Neftci Baku vs Kapaz in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.