Macarthur FC vs Brisbane Roar
A-League, Australia · 2026-11-08 · 05:00 CET
LWWDD
DLLWDThe score model made a Macarthur FC win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Macarthur FC 1.54 – 1.40 Brisbane Roar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macarthur FC win | 40.1% | 38.5% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.7% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Brisbane Roar win | 34.2% | 34.9% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 54.6% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.0% | 34.1% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 58.6% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.1% | 37.2% | +0.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Macarthur FC 30.9 / Brisbane Roar 30.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Macarthur FC vs Brisbane Roar in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.