Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory
A-League, Australia · 2026-11-08 · 07:00 CET
WDLLL
WLLDDThe score model made an Adelaide United win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Adelaide United 1.73 – 1.62 Melbourne Victory.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide United win | 40.5% | 32.5% | +8.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.9% | 26.3% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Melbourne Victory win | 35.6% | 41.2% | -5.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.0% | 59.3% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.0% | 38.6% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.5% | 62.8% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.1% | 40.7% | +4.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Adelaide United 30.1 / Melbourne Victory 31 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.