Sydney FC vs Central Coast Mariners
A-League, Australia · 2026-11-06 · 09:40 CET
DLDWL
WLDLDThe score model makes a Sydney FC win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Central Coast Mariners win — 19.1% vs 15.2% implied (+3.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sydney FC 1.92 – 1.01 Central Coast Mariners.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney FC win | 58.1% | 63.6% | -5.5% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 21.2% | +1.6% |
| Central Coast Mariners win | 19.1% | 15.2% | +3.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | 58.3% | -2.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.8% | 37.4% | -3.7% |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 54.0% | +0.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 39.8% | -1.3% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Sydney FC 31.5 / Central Coast Mariners 31.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.