Biskra vs Saoura
Ligue 1, Algeria · 2026-09-22 · 18:00 CET
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WDDWLThe score model made a Saoura win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 26%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Biskra 0.83 – 0.93 Saoura.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biskra win | 30.5% | 38.9% | -8.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.6% | 35.5% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Saoura win | 35.9% | 25.6% | +10.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 52.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25.8% | 27.7% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10.2% | 14.3% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 34.2% | 34.2% | -0.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.5% | 20.2% | +3.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Biskra 18.8 / Saoura 36.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.