MC Alger vs Rouisset
Ligue 1, Algeria · 2026-09-18 · 20:00 CET
WWDLW
WWLLWThe score model makes an MC Alger win the most likely outcome at 64%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 77.3% vs 72.5% implied (+4.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: MC Alger 1.59 – 0.50 Rouisset.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MC Alger win | 64.2% | 66.8% | -2.6% |
| Draw | 24.6% | 23.9% | +0.7% |
| Rouisset win | 11.2% | 9.3% | +2.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.7% | 37.4% | -2.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.9% | 20.1% | -4.2% |
| Both teams to score | 31.4% | 30.5% | +1.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.7% | 27.5% | -4.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: MC Alger 36.5 / Rouisset 20.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.