Khenchela vs Ben Aknoun
Ligue 1, Algeria · 2026-09-18 · 17:00 CET
WDWWD
LDDWDThe score model makes a Khenchela win the most likely outcome at 47%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 51.8% vs 36.1% implied (+15.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Khenchela 1.59 – 1.15 Ben Aknoun.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Khenchela win | 47.4% | 44.3% | +3.0% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 31.3% | -6.2% |
| Ben Aknoun win | 27.5% | 24.3% | +3.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 36.1% | +15.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.6% | 19.3% | +10.3% |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 42.4% | +12.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 26.7% | +13.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Khenchela 37 / Ben Aknoun 26 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.