ES Setif vs Constantine
Ligue 1, Algeria · 2026-09-19 · 20:00 CET
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DLDDWThe score model made an ES Setif win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). It finished 5:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: ES Setif 1.12 – 0.91 Constantine.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES Setif win | 40.1% | 42.3% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.7% | 32.7% | -2.0% | ✗ |
| Constantine win | 29.2% | 25.1% | +4.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.0% | 34.2% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 14.7% | 18.4% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 40.3% | 41.2% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.9% | 24.0% | -1.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: ES Setif 37.8 / Constantine 38.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.