ASO Chlef vs Oran
Ligue 1, Algeria · 2026-09-18 · 22:00 CET
LLDDL
WWLDWThe score model made an ASO Chlef win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: ASO Chlef 1.24 – 0.96 Oran.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASO Chlef win | 42.4% | 42.5% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 31.9% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Oran win | 28.5% | 25.7% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.6% | 35.8% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.0% | 19.0% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.9% | 42.7% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.6% | 25.9% | -0.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: ASO Chlef 38.5 / Oran 36.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.