The season in numbers
Blindly backing draws in every match beat the market this season. The other 4 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Atletic Lleida produced performances worth 11 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 33.8' on average.
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Segunda RFEF - Group 3 match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Final table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baleares | 66 | 57.7 | +8.3 | champions — earned it |
| 2 | Sant Andreu | 66 | 56.4 | +9.6 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | Poblense | 59 |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
One email per matchweek: fixtures with data leans, who's outperforming the market, and anything it's mispricing. Starts with the 2026-27 season. No tips, no spam.
Statistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+
