Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctThe season in numbers
Home wins paid out more than the market charged: +10.0% at market prices across 71 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Pena Deportiva produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 35.7' on average.
Add Segunda RFEF - Group 3 fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Segunda RFEF - Group 3 schedule 10,000 times a day. Cieza win the 2026-2027 title in 48% of them, projecting ~71 points; Castellonense are next at 34%. At the other end, Real Murcia B finish in the bottom three in 88% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cieza | 15 | 71 | 63–79 | 48% | 98% | — |
| 2 | Castellonense | 18 | 70 | 61–78 | 34% | 96% | — |
| 3 | UCAM Murcia | 15 | 66 | 58–74 | 16% | 91% | — |
| 4 | Baleares | 10 | 55 | 47–63 | <1% | 32% | <1% |
| 5 | CF Intercity | 12 | 54 | 45–62 | <1% | 24% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Pena Deportiva | 4 | 32 | 24–40 | — | <1% | 62% |
| 17 | Mallorca B | 9 | 32 | 25–39 | — | — | 66% |
| 18 | Real Murcia B | 7 | 27 | 20–35 | — | — | 88% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 239 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/spain/segunda-rfef-group-3/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Segunda RFEF - Group 3 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/spain/segunda-rfef-group-3">Segunda RFEF - Group 3 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Segunda RFEF - Group 3 match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellonense | 18 | 8.0 | +10.1 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Cieza | 15 | 10.2 | +4.8 | |
| 3 | UCAM Murcia | 15 | 14.6 | +0.4 | |
| 4 | Castellon B | 15 | 10.1 | +4.9 | |
| 5 | Deportiva Minera | 14 | 10.9 | +3.1 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Real Murcia B | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | |
| 17 | Valencia B | 5 | 10.4 | -5.4 | |
| 18 | Pena Deportiva | 4 | 9.6 | -5.6 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+

Baleares
Castellon B
Valencia B
