Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Home wins paid out more than the market charged: +5.4% at market prices across 49 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Pena Deportiva produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 39.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Poblense– Castellon B | 2026-10-11 | 10:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 62.6% | 39.2% | ▲ +23.3% | 2.55 |
Add Segunda RFEF - Group 3 fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Segunda RFEF - Group 3 schedule 10,000 times a day. UCAM Murcia win the 2026-2027 title in 40% of them, projecting ~68 points; Castellonense are next at 35%. At the other end, Real Murcia B finish in the bottom three in 97% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UCAM Murcia | 9 | 68 | 60–76 | 40% | 92% | — |
| 2 | Castellonense | 15 | 68 | 60–76 | 35% | 90% | — |
| 3 | CF Intercity | 12 | 63 | 54–71 | 13% | 70% | — |
| 4 | Cieza | 9 | 61 | 52–69 | 8% | 59% | <1% |
| 5 |  Alcoyano | 11 | 57 | 48–65 | 2% | 31% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Pena Deportiva | 1 | 32 | 24–40 | — | <1% | 55% |
| 17 | Mallorca B | 5 | 28 | 20–35 | — | — | 83% |
| 18 | Real Murcia B | 3 | 22 | 15–29 | — | — | 97% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 261 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/spain/segunda-rfef-group-3/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Segunda RFEF - Group 3 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/spain/segunda-rfef-group-3">Segunda RFEF - Group 3 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Segunda RFEF - Group 3 match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellonense | 15 | 6.0 | +8.9 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Castellon B | 12 | 7.3 | +4.8 | |
| 3 | La Nucia | 12 | 7.8 | +4.3 | |
| 4 | CF Intercity | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 | |
| 5 | Alcoyano | 11 | 10.0 | +1.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Poblense | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 | |
| 17 | Real Murcia B | 3 | 6.4 | -3.4 | |
| 18 | Pena Deportiva | 1 | 6.2 | -5.2 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+