Segunda RFEF - Group 3 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Spain · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: UCAM Murcia (58%), Cieza (19%), Castellonense (17%). 73 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCAM Murcia | 8 | 15 | 7163–79 | 58% | 58 from 27 (2.15/game) |
| Cieza | 7 | 12 | 6557–74 | 19% | 61 from 28 (2.18/game) |
| Castellonense | 7 | 15 | 6557–74 | 17% | 58 from 28 (2.07/game) |
| CF Intercity | 7 | 12 | 5951–68 | 4% | 61 from 28 (2.18/game) |
Below 1%: Alcoyano, Baleares, Castellon B, Poblense, Lorca Deportiva, Deportiva Minera, Ilicitano, Yeclano, Valencia B, La Nucia, Orihuela, Pena Deportiva, Mallorca B, Real Murcia B.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 248 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).