Biggest divergence
Radnicki 1923 – Mladost+7.7%
Under 2.5 · data 66% vs market 58%
Fastest starters
Crvena zvezda17%
3 of their 18 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
IMT Novi Beograd55%
6 of their 11 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
The outlier
+7.9uBlindly backing home wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-5.2 ptsPartizan produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
25%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Radnicki 1923 – Mladost2026-09-12 18:30Under 2.5 ✓65.8%vs 58.1%▲ +7.7%- Radnicki Nis – OFK Beograd Mozzart Bet2026-09-13 14:00Away win ✓35.6%vs 32.5%▲ +3.2%
- Cukaricki – Novi Pazar2026-09-12 16:30FT U3.573.2%vs 71.4%▲ +1.7%
- Partizan – Vojvodina2026-09-13 15:00Under 1.5 HT63.0%vs 62.9%▲ +0.1%
- IMT Novi Beograd – Crvena zvezda2026-09-13 17:00Draw20.6%vs 22.0%-1.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Radnicki 1923– Mladost | 2026-09-12 | 18:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 65.8% | 58.1% | ▲ +7.7% | 1.72 | |
| 2 |  Radnicki Nis– OFK Beograd Mozzart Bet | 2026-09-13 | 14:00 | Away win ✓ | 35.6% | 32.5% | ▲ +3.2% | 3.08 | |
| 3 |  Cukaricki– Novi Pazar | 2026-09-12 | 16:30 | FT U3.5 | 73.2% | 71.4% | ▲ +1.7% | 1.40 | |
| 4 |  Partizan– Vojvodina | 2026-09-13 | 15:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 63.0% | 62.9% | ▲ +0.1% | 1.59 | |
| 5 |  IMT Novi Beograd– Crvena zvezda | 2026-09-13 | 17:00 | Draw | 20.6% | 22.0% | -1.4% | 4.55 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Super Liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Crvena zvezda win the 2026-2027 title in 98% of them, projecting ~64 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Zemun finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Crvena zvezda | 19 | 64 | 58–70 | 98% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 18 | 50 | 44–57 | 2% | 98% | — |
| 3 |  Partizan | 7 | 40 | 33–47 | <1% | 56% | 1% |
| 4 | Zeleznicar Pancevo | 8 | 37 | 30–44 | <1% | 33% | 4% |
| 5 |  Radnicki 1923 | 11 | 36 | 29–43 | — | 26% | 4% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 12 | Macva | 8 | 26 | 20–33 | — | <1% | 63% |
| 13 |  Radnicki Nis | 5 | 26 | 19–32 | — | <1% | 67% |
| 14 | Zemun | 1 | 14 | 8–19 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 129 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/serbia/mozzart-bet-super-liga/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Super Liga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/serbia/mozzart-bet-super-liga">Super Liga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Super Liga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Home wins▲ +7.9u
53 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Super Liga match in 2026-2027: +7.9 units over 53 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▲ +3.9u
53 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Super Liga match in 2026-2027: +3.9 units over 53 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▲ +2.3u
53 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Super Liga match in 2026-2027: +2.3 units over 53 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -7.6u
53 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Super Liga match in 2026-2027: -7.6 units over 53 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▼ -12.3u
53 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Super Liga match in 2026-2027: -12.3 units over 53 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -22.1u
53 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Super Liga match in 2026-2027: -22.1 units over 53 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -22.9u
53 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Super Liga match in 2026-2027: -22.9 units over 53 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crvena zvezda | 19 | 17.2 | +1.8 | |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 18 | 15.1 | +2.9 | |
| 3 | IMT Novi Beograd | 14 | 12.0 | +2.0 | |
| 4 | Mladost | 13 | 8.9 | +4.1 | |
| 5 |  Radnik | 12 | 9.7 | +2.3 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 12 | Partizan | 7 | 12.2 | -5.2 | |
| 13 | Radnicki Nis | 5 | 9.7 | -4.7 | |
| 14 | Zemun | 1 | 5.5 | -4.5 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+