Biggest divergence
Macva – Crvena zvezda+10.0%
FT U3.5 · data 61% vs market 51%
Fastest starters
Zeleznicar Pancevo32%
6 of their 19 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
IMT Novi Beograd40%
6 of their 15 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+3.5%HT Under 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +3.5% at market prices across 89 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-9.6 ptsPartizan produced performances worth 10 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
28%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29.3' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Macva – Crvena zvezda2026-10-31 16:00FT U3.5Model 61.3%Implied 51.3%▲ +10.0%- Radnicki 1923 – Zeleznicar Pancevo2026-10-28 14:00Under 2.5Model 60.3%Implied 54.6%▲ +5.6%
- OFK Beograd Mozzart Bet – Vojvodina2026-11-01 14:00Under 1.5 HTModel 70.3%Implied 64.9%▲ +5.3%
- Mladost – Radnik2026-11-02 17:00Under 2.5Model 65.1%Implied 60.2%▲ +4.9%
- IMT Novi Beograd – Cukaricki2026-11-01 13:00Under 2.5Model 59.7%Implied 56.2%▲ +3.6%
- Radnicki Nis – Zeleznicar Pancevo2026-11-02 17:00Under 2.5Model 58.1%Implied 55.6%▲ +2.5%
- Radnicki 1923 – Novi Pazar2026-11-01 15:00Under 2.5Model 54.5%Implied 53.2%▲ +1.3%
- Partizan – Zemun2026-11-01 16:00FT U3.5Model 58.4%Implied 57.5%▲ +1.0%
- Radnicki Nis – Partizan2026-10-28 16:00DrawModel 25.6%Implied 27.5%-1.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Macva– Crvena zvezda | 2026-10-31 | 16:00 | FT U3.5 | 61.3% | 51.3% | ▲ +10.0% | 1.95 |
| 2 |  Radnicki 1923– Zeleznicar Pancevo | 2026-10-28 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 60.3% | 54.6% | ▲ +5.6% | 1.83 |
| 3 |  OFK Beograd Mozzart Bet– Vojvodina | 2026-11-01 | 14:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 70.3% | 64.9% | ▲ +5.3% | 1.54 |
| 4 |  Mladost– Radnik | 2026-11-02 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 | 65.1% | 60.2% | ▲ +4.9% | 1.66 |
| 5 |  IMT Novi Beograd– Cukaricki | 2026-11-01 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 | 59.7% | 56.2% | ▲ +3.6% | 1.78 |
| 6 |  Radnicki Nis–Zeleznicar Pancevo | 2026-11-02 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 | 58.1% | 55.6% | ▲ +2.5% | 1.80 |
| 7 | Radnicki 1923– Novi Pazar | 2026-11-01 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 54.5% | 53.2% | ▲ +1.3% | 1.88 |
| 8 |  Partizan– Zemun | 2026-11-01 | 16:00 | FT U3.5 | 58.4% | 57.5% | ▲ +1.0% | 1.74 |
| 9 | Radnicki Nis–Partizan | 2026-10-28 | 16:00 | Draw | 25.6% | 27.5% | -1.9% | 3.64 |
Add Super Liga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Super Liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Crvena zvezda win the 2026-2027 title in >99% of them, projecting ~69 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Zemun finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Crvena zvezda | 37 | 69 | 64–73 | >99% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Vojvodina | 29 | 53 | 47–58 | <1% | >99% | — |
| 3 | Zeleznicar Pancevo | 23 | 44 | 38–50 | — | 82% | — |
| 4 |  Radnicki 1923 | 20 | 40 | 34–46 | <1% | 49% | <1% |
| 5 | IMT Novi Beograd | 21 | 38 | 33–44 | — | 31% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 12 |  Radnicki Nis | 8 | 23 | 17–29 | — | <1% | 77% |
| 13 | Macva | 10 | 22 | 17–27 | — | — | 86% |
| 14 | Zemun | 6 | 15 | 10–19 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 93 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/serbia/mozzart-bet-super-liga/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Super Liga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/serbia/mozzart-bet-super-liga">Super Liga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Super Liga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
HT Under 1.5▲ +3.5%
at market prices · 89 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Super Liga, 2026-2027: across 89 matches the market's prices paid out +3.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▲ +2.5%
at market prices · 89 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Super Liga, 2026-2027: across 89 matches the market's prices paid out +2.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −2.7%
at market prices · 89 matcheschart →
Home wins in Super Liga, 2026-2027: across 89 matches the market's prices paid out −2.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −13.0%
at market prices · 89 matcheschart →
Draws in Super Liga, 2026-2027: across 89 matches the market's prices paid out −13.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −19.2%
at market prices · 89 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Super Liga, 2026-2027: across 89 matches the market's prices paid out −19.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −31.3%
at market prices · 89 matcheschart →
Away wins in Super Liga, 2026-2027: across 89 matches the market's prices paid out −31.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −32.4%
at market prices · 89 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Super Liga, 2026-2027: across 89 matches the market's prices paid out −32.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crvena zvezda | 37 | 31.4 | +5.6 | |
| 2 | Vojvodina | 29 | 23.8 | +5.2 | |
| 3 | Zeleznicar Pancevo | 23 | 18.4 | +4.6 | |
| 4 | IMT Novi Beograd | 21 | 17.8 | +3.2 | |
| 5 | Radnicki 1923 | 20 | 16.6 | +3.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 12 | Macva | 10 | 11.5 | -1.5 | |
| 13 | Radnicki Nis | 8 | 14.8 | -6.8 | |
| 14 | Zemun | 6 | 9.9 | -3.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+