Super Liga title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Serbia · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Crvena zvezda (99%), Vojvodina (1%). 60 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crvena zvezda | 12 | 34 | 6863–73 | 99% | 26 from 14 (1.86/game) |
| Vojvodina | 12 | 28 | 5448–60 | 1% | 32 from 14 (2.29/game) |
Below 1%: Zeleznicar Pancevo, Radnicki 1923, IMT Novi Beograd, Partizan, Radnik, Cukaricki, Novi Pazar, Mladost, OFK Beograd Mozzart Bet, Radnicki Nis, Macva, Zemun.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
Loading the scenario…
How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 96 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).