National 2025-2026 Performance vs Market

Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.

#	Team	P	Pts	xPts	vs xPTS	xPos	Home Δ	Away Δ	Biggest overshoot	Harshest result
1	Dijon	32	65	55.8	+9.2Outperforming ++	1	+1.6	+7.6	1:2 vs Orleans (+1.8)	1:2 vs Chateauroux (-2.2)
2	Fleury-Merogis	32	54	45.9	+8.1Outperforming ++	8	+2.9	+5.2	0:1 vs Dijon (+2.1)	0:2 vs Aubagne (-1.7)
3	Versailles	32	53	47.1	+5.9Outperforming ++	7	+1.7	+4.2	0:2 vs Caen (+1.9)	1:2 vs Quevilly Rouen (-1.8)
4	Sochaux	32	58	52.5	+5.5Outperforming ++	2	+4.2	+1.4	1:2 vs Orleans (+1.8)	2:1 vs Chateauroux (-1.8)
5	en-Velay	15	25	19.7	+5.3Outperforming ++	19	0.0	+5.3	0:3 vs Concarneau-Le Puy (+1.8)	1:0 vs Bourg en Bresse-Le Puy (-1.7)
6	Orleans	32	51	48.0	+3.0Outperforming	4	-0.1	+3.2	2:0 vs Fleury-Merogis (+1.9)	0:3 vs Quevilly Rouen (-1.9)
7	Rouen	32	55	52.0	+3.0Outperforming	3	+0.7	+2.3	2:3 vs Valenciennes (+1.8)	1:2 vs Chateauroux (-1.9)
8	Velay-Aubagne	1	3	0.8	+2.2Outperforming	49	0.0	+2.2	1:2 vs Le Puy-en (+2.2)	1:2 vs Le Puy-en (2.2)
9	Bourg en Bresse-Le Puy	1	3	1.0	+2.0Outperforming	44	+2.0	0.0	1:0 vs en-Velay (+2.0)	1:0 vs en-Velay (2.0)
10	Villefranche	32	37	35.0	+2.0Outperforming	16	+6.1	-4.1	2:1 vs Rouen (+2.1)	0:1 vs Bourg en Bresse (-1.4)
11	Velay-Rouen	1	3	1.3	+1.7On expectation	31	0.0	+1.7	0:3 vs Le Puy-en (+1.7)	0:3 vs Le Puy-en (1.7)
12	Velay-Sochaux	1	3	1.3	+1.7On expectation	30	0.0	+1.7	0:1 vs Le Puy-en (+1.7)	0:1 vs Le Puy-en (1.7)
13	Valenciennes-Le Puy	1	3	1.6	+1.4On expectation	25	+1.4	0.0	2:1 vs en-Velay (+1.4)	2:1 vs en-Velay (1.4)
14	Dijon-Le Puy	1	3	1.6	+1.4On expectation	23	+1.4	0.0	2:0 vs en-Velay (+1.4)	2:0 vs en-Velay (1.4)
15	Velay-Dijon	1	3	1.7	+1.3On expectation	22	0.0	+1.3	1:2 vs Le Puy-en (+1.3)	1:2 vs Le Puy-en (1.3)
16	Caen-Le Puy	1	3	1.7	+1.3On expectation	21	+1.3	0.0	2:0 vs en-Velay (+1.3)	2:0 vs en-Velay (1.3)
17	Aubagne	32	37	36.5	+0.5On expectation	13	-4.7	+5.2	1:2 vs Le Puy-en-Velay (+2.2)	0:1 vs Quevilly Rouen (-1.7)
18	Velay-Stade Briochin	1	1	0.8	+0.2On expectation	48	0.0	+0.2	1:1 vs Le Puy-en (+0.2)	1:1 vs Le Puy-en (0.2)
19	Velay-Orleans	1	1	0.8	+0.2On expectation	47	0.0	+0.2	1:1 vs Le Puy-en (+0.2)	1:1 vs Le Puy-en (0.2)
20	Velay-Chateauroux	1	1	0.9	+0.1On expectation	46	0.0	+0.1	2:2 vs Le Puy-en (+0.1)	2:2 vs Le Puy-en (0.1)
21	Velay-Concarneau	1	1	0.9	+0.1On expectation	45	0.0	+0.1	1:1 vs Le Puy-en (+0.1)	1:1 vs Le Puy-en (0.1)
22	Velay-Bourg en Bresse	1	1	1.0	-0.0On expectation	41	0.0	-0.0	1:1 vs Le Puy-en (+-0.0)	1:1 vs Le Puy-en (-0.0)
23	Velay-Paris 13 Atl.	1	1	1.0	-0.0On expectation	42	0.0	-0.0	1:1 vs Le Puy-en (+-0.0)	1:1 vs Le Puy-en (-0.0)
24	Quevilly Rouen-Le Puy	1	1	1.2	-0.2On expectation	34	-0.2	0.0	0:0 vs en-Velay (+-0.2)	0:0 vs en-Velay (-0.2)
25	Velay-Versailles	1	1	1.3	-0.3On expectation	32	0.0	-0.3	2:2 vs Le Puy-en (+-0.3)	2:2 vs Le Puy-en (-0.3)
26	Orleans-Le Puy	1	1	1.6	-0.6On expectation	26	-0.6	0.0	1:1 vs en-Velay (+-0.6)	1:1 vs en-Velay (-0.6)
27	Le Puy-en-Velay	32	47	47.6	-0.6On expectation	6	-4.8	+4.2	0:3 vs Concarneau (+1.8)	1:2 vs Aubagne (-2.0)
28	Rouen-Le Puy	1	1	1.6	-0.6On expectation	24	-0.6	0.0	1:1 vs en-Velay (+-0.6)	1:1 vs en-Velay (-0.6)
29	Velay-Quevilly Rouen	1	0	0.7	-0.7On expectation	50	0.0	-0.7	2:1 vs Le Puy-en (+-0.7)	2:1 vs Le Puy-en (-0.7)
30	Sochaux-Le Puy	1	1	2.0	-1.0On expectation	20	-1.0	0.0	2:2 vs en-Velay (+-1.0)	2:2 vs en-Velay (-1.0)
31	Velay-Villefranche	1	0	1.0	-1.0On expectation	43	0.0	-1.0	3:0 vs Le Puy-en (+-1.0)	3:0 vs Le Puy-en (-1.0)
32	Chateauroux-Le Puy	1	0	1.1	-1.1On expectation	40	-1.1	0.0	0:2 vs en-Velay (+-1.1)	0:2 vs en-Velay (-1.1)
33	Velay-Valenciennes	1	0	1.1	-1.1On expectation	39	0.0	-1.1	3:0 vs Le Puy-en (+-1.1)	3:0 vs Le Puy-en (-1.1)
34	Velay-Fleury-Merogis	1	0	1.1	-1.1On expectation	38	0.0	-1.1	2:1 vs Le Puy-en (+-1.1)	2:1 vs Le Puy-en (-1.1)
35	Villefranche-Le Puy	1	0	1.1	-1.1On expectation	37	-1.1	0.0	2:3 vs en-Velay (+-1.1)	2:3 vs en-Velay (-1.1)
36	Velay-Caen	1	0	1.1	-1.1On expectation	36	0.0	-1.1	1:0 vs Le Puy-en (+-1.1)	1:0 vs Le Puy-en (-1.1)
37	Paris 13 Atl.-Le Puy	1	0	1.2	-1.2On expectation	35	-1.2	0.0	0:1 vs en-Velay (+-1.2)	0:1 vs en-Velay (-1.2)
38	Aubagne-Le Puy	1	0	1.3	-1.3On expectation	33	-1.3	0.0	1:4 vs en-Velay (+-1.3)	1:4 vs en-Velay (-1.3)
39	Stade Briochin-Le Puy	1	0	1.3	-1.3On expectation	29	-1.3	0.0	1:2 vs en-Velay (+-1.3)	1:2 vs en-Velay (-1.3)
40	Versailles-Le Puy	1	0	1.4	-1.4On expectation	28	-1.4	0.0	0:3 vs en-Velay (+-1.4)	0:3 vs en-Velay (-1.4)
41	Concarneau-Le Puy	1	0	1.5	-1.5On expectation	27	-1.5	0.0	0:3 vs en-Velay (+-1.5)	0:3 vs en-Velay (-1.5)
42	Quevilly Rouen	32	33	35.7	-2.7Underperforming	15	-3.5	+0.8	0:3 vs Orleans (+2.2)	0:3 vs Chateauroux (-1.6)
43	Le Puy-en	16	22	26.7	-4.7Underperforming	18	-4.7	0.0	1:0 vs Velay-Caen (+1.4)	1:2 vs Velay-Aubagne (-2.0)
44	Concarneau	32	38	42.8	-4.8Underperforming	10	-5.2	+0.4	1:2 vs Valenciennes (+2.0)	0:1 vs Bourg en Bresse (-1.7)
45	Bourg en Bresse	32	31	36.0	-5.0Underperforming	14	-1.6	-3.3	3:1 vs Rouen (+2.1)	0:3 vs Quevilly Rouen (-1.4)
46	Paris 13 Atl.	32	32	38.3	-6.3Underperforming −−	11	-1.0	-5.2	0:1 vs Chateauroux (+1.8)	1:3 vs Versailles (-1.3)
47	Chateauroux	32	31	37.8	-6.8Underperforming −−	12	-7.2	+0.4	1:2 vs Dijon (+2.4)	3:5 vs Quevilly Rouen (-1.6)
48	Valenciennes	32	38	44.9	-6.9Underperforming −−	9	-2.0	-4.9	1:2 vs Rouen (+2.0)	1:2 vs Stade Briochin (-1.9)
49	Caen	32	40	47.7	-7.7Underperforming −−	5	-2.4	-5.3	1:2 vs Fleury-Merogis (+1.7)	0:2 vs Versailles (-1.6)
50	Stade Briochin	32	27	35.0	-8.0Underperforming −−	17	-6.9	-1.1	1:2 vs Valenciennes (+2.1)	1:2 vs Bourg en Bresse (-1.6)