San Diego FC vs Sporting Kansas City
MLS, USA · 2026-11-08 · 01:00 CET
DDDLW
LLLLDThe score model makes a San Diego FC win the most likely outcome at 57%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 68%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 53.9% vs 42.7% implied (+11.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: San Diego FC 2.18 – 1.31 Sporting Kansas City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego FC win | 56.8% | 64.6% | -7.8% |
| Draw | 21.3% | 18.0% | +3.3% |
| Sporting Kansas City win | 21.9% | 17.4% | +4.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.7% | 74.4% | -6.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46.1% | 57.3% | -11.2% |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% | 67.1% | -1.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 45.6% | 52.7% | -7.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: San Diego FC 39.8 / Sporting Kansas City 49.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.