Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy
MLS, USA · 2026-11-08 · 01:00 CET
DWWWL
LWDDWThe score model makes a Real Salt Lake win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 59.4% vs 51.0% implied (+8.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Real Salt Lake 1.95 – 1.29 Los Angeles Galaxy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake win | 52.0% | 57.3% | -5.3% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 21.3% | +1.9% |
| Los Angeles Galaxy win | 24.8% | 21.4% | +3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | 68.0% | -5.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.6% | 49.0% | -8.4% |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | 65.1% | -2.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.7% | 47.0% | -3.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Real Salt Lake 50.1 / Los Angeles Galaxy 49.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.