FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids
MLS, USA · 2026-11-08 · 01:00 CET
WDWLD
DDWDLThe score model makes an FC Dallas win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.3% vs 62.3% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Dallas 1.65 – 1.14 Colorado Rapids.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas win | 48.6% | 46.5% | +2.1% |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.4% | +0.3% |
| Colorado Rapids win | 25.7% | 28.2% | -2.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 58.1% | -5.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 37.7% | -7.0% |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% | 59.8% | -4.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.1% | 39.1% | -4.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: FC Dallas 49.9 / Colorado Rapids 48.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FC Dallas vs Colorado Rapids in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.