DC United vs New York City
MLS, USA · 2026-11-07 · 22:00 CET
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LDDWDThe score model makes a New York City win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 72.4% vs 62.8% implied (+9.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: DC United 1.14 – 1.51 New York City.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| DC United win | 28.0% | 32.7% | -4.7% |
| Draw | 26.9% | 26.2% | +0.7% |
| New York City win | 45.1% | 41.2% | +3.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | 57.5% | -7.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 37.2% | -9.5% |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% | 60.8% | -7.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 38.5% | -4.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: DC United 49.8 / New York City 49.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open DC United vs New York City in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.