Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew
MLS, USA · 2026-11-07 · 22:00 CET
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WWWWWThe score model makes a Chicago Fire win the most likely outcome at 42%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Columbus Crew win — 34.6% vs 27.5% implied (+7.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chicago Fire 1.76 – 1.59 Columbus Crew.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire win | 41.6% | 48.7% | -7.1% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 23.8% | +0.1% |
| Columbus Crew win | 34.6% | 27.5% | +7.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.1% | 64.3% | +0.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.1% | 47.1% | -4.0% |
| Both teams to score | 66.5% | 64.4% | +2.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 45.6% | -4.2% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Chicago Fire 49.1 / Columbus Crew 49.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chicago Fire vs Columbus Crew in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.