Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo
MLS, USA · 2026-11-02 · 03:30 CET
DLDWW
DDDDWThe score model makes a Portland Timbers win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 69.6% vs 58.9% implied (+10.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Portland Timbers 1.64 – 1.14 Houston Dynamo.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers win | 48.1% | 50.0% | -1.9% |
| Draw | 25.9% | 24.2% | +1.7% |
| Houston Dynamo win | 26.0% | 25.8% | +0.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 59.4% | -6.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.4% | 41.1% | -10.7% |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 59.9% | -4.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.4% | 41.3% | -6.9% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Portland Timbers 48.2 / Houston Dynamo 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.