New England Revolution vs Inter Miami
MLS, USA · 2026-11-02 · 01:00 CET
LWWWW
WWWLDThe score model makes a New England Revolution win the most likely outcome at 39%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 66%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 55.9% vs 48.4% implied (+7.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: New England Revolution 1.71 – 1.69 Inter Miami.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution win | 38.7% | 34.7% | +3.9% |
| Draw | 23.8% | 23.6% | +0.2% |
| Inter Miami win | 37.5% | 41.7% | -4.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.0% | 70.7% | -4.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.1% | 51.6% | -7.4% |
| Both teams to score | 67.4% | 71.2% | -3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.6% | 49.6% | -7.0% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: New England Revolution 48.6 / Inter Miami 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.