Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United
MLS, USA · 2026-11-02 · 02:30 CET
LDWDD
DDWDWThe score model makes a Los Angeles FC win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 62.9% vs 58.4% implied (+4.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Los Angeles FC 1.86 – 1.22 Minnesota United.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC win | 51.6% | 55.5% | -4.0% |
| Draw | 23.9% | 22.8% | +1.1% |
| Minnesota United win | 24.5% | 21.7% | +2.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 61.7% | -2.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.1% | 41.6% | -4.6% |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 60.3% | -0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | 42.0% | -1.1% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Los Angeles FC 49.3 / Minnesota United 48.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Los Angeles FC vs Minnesota United in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.