Samsunspor vs Konyaspor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-11-07 · 14:00 CET
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DDLWLThe score model makes a Konyaspor win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Both teams to score — 57.9% vs 55.2% implied (+2.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Samsunspor 1.38 – 1.42 Konyaspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Samsunspor win | 35.4% | 38.7% | -3.3% |
| Draw | 27.7% | 26.9% | +0.8% |
| Konyaspor win | 37.0% | 34.5% | +2.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 50.5% | +2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 29.7% | +1.0% |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 55.2% | +2.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.2% | 35.0% | -1.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Samsunspor 43.4 / Konyaspor 46.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Samsunspor vs Konyaspor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.