Eyupspor vs Kocaelispor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-11-07 · 11:30 CET
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WLLWDThe score model makes a Kocaelispor win the most likely outcome at 35%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Eyupspor win — 32.6% vs 23.0% implied (+9.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eyupspor 1.05 – 1.10 Kocaelispor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eyupspor win | 32.6% | 23.0% | +9.6% |
| Draw | 32.3% | 26.4% | +5.9% |
| Kocaelispor win | 35.1% | 50.6% | -15.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.2% | 45.1% | -8.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.0% | 24.8% | -7.8% |
| Both teams to score | 44.5% | 48.5% | -4.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.6% | 31.4% | -6.8% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Eyupspor 37.9 / Kocaelispor 28.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Eyupspor vs Kocaelispor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.