Kasimpasa vs Konyaspor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-09-18 · 19:00 CET
WDLWW
LWDDLThe score model made a Kasimpasa win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kasimpasa 1.52 – 1.11 Konyaspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa win | 45.6% | 38.5% | +7.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.8% | 29.9% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| Konyaspor win | 26.6% | 31.7% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 44.2% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 24.0% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.6% | 51.2% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.9% | 30.5% | +2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kasimpasa 45.4 / Konyaspor 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Kasimpasa vs Konyaspor in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.