Trabzonspor vs Basaksehir
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-23 · 18:00 CET
LDWLW
WWLDLThe score model made a Trabzonspor win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Trabzonspor 1.66 – 1.31 Basaksehir.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trabzonspor win | 44.2% | 47.8% | -3.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.1% | 26.0% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Basaksehir win | 28.7% | 26.2% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | 57.4% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.6% | 36.5% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | 59.8% | +0.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.1% | 39.2% | -1.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Trabzonspor 44 / Basaksehir 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.