Eyupspor vs Gaziantep
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-23 · 18:00 CET
DLLWL
LDWLWThe score model made an Eyupspor win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eyupspor 1.48 – 1.05 Gaziantep.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eyupspor win | 45.5% | 32.4% | +13.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.5% | 29.6% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Gaziantep win | 25.1% | 37.9% | -12.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 50.0% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.9% | 29.8% | -4.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.9% | 56.2% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 33.8% | -5.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eyupspor 34.8 / Gaziantep 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.