Rizespor vs Samsunspor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-22 · 18:00 CET
DWLWL
WDWLLThe score model made a Rizespor win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rizespor 1.52 – 1.36 Samsunspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rizespor win | 39.4% | 45.8% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 27.8% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Samsunspor win | 32.6% | 26.4% | +6.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | 52.0% | +2.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% | 31.3% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.7% | 56.2% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 35.2% | -5.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rizespor 41.3 / Samsunspor 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.