Fenerbahce vs Konyaspor
Super Lig, Turkey · 2026-08-22 · 20:30 CET
DLWWL
LLLLLThe score model made a Fenerbahce win the most likely outcome at 72%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 4:2 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fenerbahce 2.56 – 0.89 Konyaspor.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce win | 72.5% | 72.3% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 17.7% | 17.5% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Konyaspor win | 9.8% | 10.2% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.0% | 60.8% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.2% | 39.7% | +5.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 48.9% | +6.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.4% | 41.7% | +0.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fenerbahce 44.1 / Konyaspor 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.